COTW: Not Repeating, But Rhyming: 2019 vs. 2013

December 3, 2019

Market pundits are drawing parallels between the performance of the S&P 500 for 2013 and 2019, and for good reason—the comparisons are understandable considering how similar performance has been, especially since July. However, we need to fight the temptation to assume analogs like this can be used to predict the future. The reality is more often than not charts like this tell us absolutely nothing about the future. Relationships like this hold... until they don't. We have no idea how long this coincidental correlation will persist, but we are quite sure that it will eventually break, and when it does, it will happen without notice. With all of that said, it's still a fascinating chart and if stocks continue to rally through December expect to see more of this.

 

The chart below can be downloaded here.

 

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