COTW: Private Credit: What We Are Watching

November 28, 2017

The chart below can be downloaded here.

 

During the prior economic expansion, the spread in wage growth between the 55+ age group & the 25-54 group was roughly 1%. Not only has this divergence continued in the current cycle, it has widened. Similar divergences can be seen in full-time vs. part-time workers & in wage growth across varying education levels. Further, while overall wage growth is relatively strong, it has recently dipped lower.  We believe these growing divergences will create risks for sub-prime segments of the household credit markets in the next recession, even as overall household credit markets are far less stretched than the last cycle.

 

 

 

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SpringTide Partners, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor with the state of Illinois and other states jurisdictions where required. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply a certain level of skill or training. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. All investing carries risk including risk of principal loss. All statements made on this website are opinions of SpringTide Partners, LLC and are subject to change. SpringTide Partners, LLC assumes no responsibility towards the accuracy of the data included. Statements made on website shall not constitute investment advice.

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