December 3, 2019

Market pundits are drawing parallels between the performance of the S&P 500 for 2013 and 2019, and for good reason—the comparisons are understandable considering how similar performance has been, especially since July. However, we need to fight the temptation to assume analogs like this can be used to predict the future. The reality is more often than not...

November 26, 2019

As the year winds down, we find ourselves reflecting on the unusually low volatility we see across financial markets and what that may be telling us about the outlook for the year ahead. With Thanksgiving just a few days away, what better time to revisit the classic analogy provided by Nassim Taleb in his 2007 book, The Black Swan.

October 29, 2019

Overlaying the deficit as a % of GDP with the unemployment rate, we can see how unusual such a high deficit is in the context of an economic expansion...

October 16, 2019

After announcing the U.S. Federal Reserve would again start buying up large quantities of Treasury securities, Fed chair Jerome Powell clarified what was really happening during the post-announcement Q&A session: "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE."

October 1, 2019

If we ignore as much noise as possible, zoom out and focus on what has performed well across global markets for the last year, the theme that dominates is that of lower interest rates. Assets geared to lower rates—most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and bonds—have handsomely beaten those assets geared for higher rates. In light of this, gol...

September 23, 2019

Over the past decade, periods of quantitative easing have generally coincided with rising Global Manufacturing PMIs and rising Treasury Yields, while periods of relative monetary tightening--as these programs have been suspended or (attempted to be) unwound--have seen growth and interest rates decline. With the Fed recently being forced to expand its bala...

September 18, 2019

Are we headed for a global earnings recession? Overlaying the year-over-year percentage change in Singapore Electronics Exports with earnings per share growth for the MSCI World Index, a widely used proxy for world stocks, suggests we may very well be.

August 26, 2019

While emerging markets have trailed their U.S. peers dramatically for most of the last several years, recent performance has been more closely in line, which may suggest a shift in market leadership...

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