April 6, 2018

The year began where 2017 left off—with a powerful rally in stocks, driven by strong earnings growth and optimism related to tax cuts. Equity mutual funds and ETFs experienced a record $58 billion of inflows in the first three weeks of the year. That trend, however, came to an abrupt end late in January and was followed by a swift reversal as the S&P 500...

February 6, 2018

On February 5th two bubbles burst: the first was the tulip bubble and the second was the bubble in complacency (low volatility). As fate would have it, yesterday was the 381st anniversary of the peak of the tulip bubble in the Dutch Republic. No one knows, least of all us, if this is the start of something larger...

October 30, 2017

Over the last 27 years, the cost to hedge a U.S. equity portfolio using S&P 500 put options for declines larger than 20% (for 12 months) has ranged from 0.35% to over 15% of the value of the portfolio. Two-thirds of the time, the cost has been over 1% (median is 1.45%). Paradoxically, when the desire for hedging goes up – typically after periods of volat...

October 16, 2017

Based on the VIX (a measure of S&P 500 option implied volatility), October 2017 is currently on pace to be the calmest month for stocks in recent history even with October typically being the most volatile month of the year.

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SpringTide Partners
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