December 3, 2018

This week's chart shows the cumulative change in the Fed Funds rate for each U.S. economic cycle since 1954. This is a visual representation of the investor's mantra, "Don't Fight the Fed ". Tighter monetary policy has been a contributing factor - and arguably the contributing factor - to the end of every sustained economic expansio...

October 30, 2018

We have long contended that asset purchases by central banks contributed – directly or indirectly – to gains in global stock markets (represented here by the MSCI All Country World Index). We know that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but a visual inspection of this chart, which has been updated through October 29, suggests at least some...

May 7, 2018

The expected rate of inflation implied by the Treasury market (comparing Treasury yields to TIPS) for maturities from 5 to 30 years is clustered—at the tightest spread in over a decade—at just over 2%. This suggests the market sees inflation anchored neatly at the Fed's long-run target well into the future.

April 30, 2018

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. budget deficit could hit $1T by 2020. Higher deficits will add to the national debt, which is expected to jump more than 50% from over $21T to $33T in the next decade. To finance this, the U.S. Treasury will need to ramp up bond issuance. Over the next 5 years, in addition to nearly $6T in Treasuries,...

February 19, 2018

Given the recent increase in volatility, we thought it made sense to hit pause and zoom out for some perspective on how we got here. Why are markets so concerned about a seemingly modest uptick in inflation? Why are rate hikes a bad thing if economic growth is relatively strong? We believe a key development to watch this year is the potential end of 9-y...

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