November 6, 2018

Seasonality is commonly referred to as "a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every year...

October 30, 2018

We have long contended that asset purchases by central banks contributed – directly or indirectly – to gains in global stock markets (represented here by the MSCI All Country World Index). We know that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but a visual inspection of this chart, which has been updated through October 29, suggests at least some...

October 23, 2018

While the year is not over and anything can happen in the short-term, the performance of U.S. core markets for the year-to-date should not come as a surprise given the starting conditions of low yields and high valuations. Perhaps ironically, the very recent pick up in yields and global stock market weakness is a tremendously positive development for long...

October 15, 2018

While it is not a perfect relationship, as real (inflation-adjusted) rates on long-term bonds rise, stock/bond correlations have tended to shift...

October 8, 2018

This week’s chart highlights two important points related to the central driver of stocks: corporate earnings growth. First, it shows just how impressive the year-over-year acceleration in sales and earnings growth was coming out of the unofficial industrial mini-recession in 2015...

July 2, 2018

For this week's chart we updated one that has made the rounds dozens of times over the years: a long-term comparison of the cumulative returns of bull and bear markets in U.S. stocks. Our update fixes an issue we have with a version of this chart that compares the linear percentage gains in bull markets with the losses in bear markets on the same axi...

June 19, 2018

The Thomson Reuters U.S. Most Shorted Index tracks the performance of U.S. stocks with the highest short interest. The index is currently comprised of 49 securities each with an approximate weight of 2%. Since mid-April, the index has outperformed the S&P 500 by a breathtaking 15% (+19% vs. +4% for the S&P 500). Putting that in context, a simple ratio of...

June 4, 2018

This week's "chart" takes a fresh look at the asset class return quilts used by advisors to demonstrate the benefit and consistency of diversification...

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T  312 620 6362
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