December 3, 2018

This week's chart shows the cumulative change in the Fed Funds rate for each U.S. economic cycle since 1954. This is a visual representation of the investor's mantra, "Don't Fight the Fed ". Tighter monetary policy has been a contributing factor - and arguably the contributing factor - to the end of every sustained economic expansio...

August 27, 2018

After a decade of outperformance relative to U.S. core bonds, emerging market bonds (as proxied by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index) have struggled recently (-5% YTD through Friday) as concerns about the ability of several countries to repay their external debt obligations have become more acute. The issues are not new, but have been brought in...

April 30, 2018

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. budget deficit could hit $1T by 2020. Higher deficits will add to the national debt, which is expected to jump more than 50% from over $21T to $33T in the next decade. To finance this, the U.S. Treasury will need to ramp up bond issuance. Over the next 5 years, in addition to nearly $6T in Treasuries,...

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