October 23, 2018

While the year is not over and anything can happen in the short-term, the performance of U.S. core markets for the year-to-date should not come as a surprise given the starting conditions of low yields and high valuations. Perhaps ironically, the very recent pick up in yields and global stock market weakness is a tremendously positive development for long...

October 15, 2018

While it is not a perfect relationship, as real (inflation-adjusted) rates on long-term bonds rise, stock/bond correlations have tended to shift...

August 27, 2018

After a decade of outperformance relative to U.S. core bonds, emerging market bonds (as proxied by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index) have struggled recently (-5% YTD through Friday) as concerns about the ability of several countries to repay their external debt obligations have become more acute. The issues are not new, but have been brought in...

May 7, 2018

The expected rate of inflation implied by the Treasury market (comparing Treasury yields to TIPS) for maturities from 5 to 30 years is clustered—at the tightest spread in over a decade—at just over 2%. This suggests the market sees inflation anchored neatly at the Fed's long-run target well into the future.

April 30, 2018

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. budget deficit could hit $1T by 2020. Higher deficits will add to the national debt, which is expected to jump more than 50% from over $21T to $33T in the next decade. To finance this, the U.S. Treasury will need to ramp up bond issuance. Over the next 5 years, in addition to nearly $6T in Treasuries,...

February 22, 2018

In December we participated in a roundtable discussion with Rick Rule, John Mauldin and Chris Casey that was hosted by Brett Rentmeester of WindRock Wealth Management. With WindRock's permission we are sharing the conversation in its entirety. The topics covered included the dollar, emerging markets, Treasury supply, North Korea and cryptocurrencies....

February 16, 2018

As asset allocators, we wouldn't mind a little more of a panic; panics can be a great opportunity to put cash to work, but we would feel more comfortable doing that if everyone wasn't falling over themselves to tell us what a great opportunity it was to buy stocks.

February 6, 2018

On February 5th two bubbles burst: the first was the tulip bubble and the second was the bubble in complacency (low volatility). As fate would have it, yesterday was the 381st anniversary of the peak of the tulip bubble in the Dutch Republic. No one knows, least of all us, if this is the start of something larger...

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