June 24, 2019

While we don't disagree with the pushback on gold as a long term strategic allocation, we think gold has increasingly become a barometer of the health of the global economy and the likely path of monetary policy going forward. We know there are many reasons why gold is not a good long-term investment, but we can also think of at least 13 trillion reas...

June 17, 2019

The Fed meets this week and is expected to at least telegraph rate cuts at either its July or September meetings, or both. The urgency of rate cuts is being hotly debated, but the consensus is that with growth slowing and inflation contained, the Fed needs to do something to support the economy and markets. There's even an outside chance the Fed will pree...

June 4, 2019

On October 1st, 2018 there was a record of over 80,000 gold futures contracts that had been sold short by investors (i.e. traders that are “non-commercial”) according to data compiled in the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report. At the time, we suggested similar extremes in sentiment tended to coincide with turning points in markets. Then record bea...

May 22, 2019

Morningstar recently published their April Fund Flows report. Per the report: "at the end of April passive U.S. equity fund assets essentially reached parity with active U.S. equity funds at $4.3 trillion each". Contrast that with the balance back in 1998 when there were 6.5 times as many assets in actively managed U.S. stock funds as in index f...

May 13, 2019

The Trump Administration is behaving as if China has much more to lose in a trade war than the U.S. Markets seem to agree, at least for now, with U.S. stocks declining just 2% last week, while Chinese stocks dropped 6% (in U.S. dollar terms). Indeed, based on the most recent data we could find, the U.S. has one-third of the percentage of GDP exposed to U...

April 29, 2019

The price-to-earnings ratio is a common valuation tool derived by dividing the price per share of an individual stock or stock index by its earnings per share.

April 8, 2019

Risky assets bounced back from disappointing returns in 2018, led by MLPs, U.S. REITs and U.S. small caps...

February 25, 2019

Only once before in at least the last thirty years have public equity markets been so patient with money-losing enterprises. In 2018, more then four out of every five initial public offerings (IPOs) had negative earnings in the 12 months prior to the offering. The last time the percentage was that high was in 2000, the peak of the Dot-Com bubble.

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SpringTide Partners
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Chicago, Illinois 60654
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