October 29, 2019

Overlaying the deficit as a % of GDP with the unemployment rate, we can see how unusual such a high deficit is in the context of an economic expansion...

October 16, 2019

After announcing the U.S. Federal Reserve would again start buying up large quantities of Treasury securities, Fed chair Jerome Powell clarified what was really happening during the post-announcement Q&A session: "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE."

October 1, 2019

If we ignore as much noise as possible, zoom out and focus on what has performed well across global markets for the last year, the theme that dominates is that of lower interest rates. Assets geared to lower rates—most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and bonds—have handsomely beaten those assets geared for higher rates. In light of this, gol...

September 23, 2019

Over the past decade, periods of quantitative easing have generally coincided with rising Global Manufacturing PMIs and rising Treasury Yields, while periods of relative monetary tightening--as these programs have been suspended or (attempted to be) unwound--have seen growth and interest rates decline. With the Fed recently being forced to expand its bala...

September 18, 2019

Are we headed for a global earnings recession? Overlaying the year-over-year percentage change in Singapore Electronics Exports with earnings per share growth for the MSCI World Index, a widely used proxy for world stocks, suggests we may very well be.

August 26, 2019

While emerging markets have trailed their U.S. peers dramatically for most of the last several years, recent performance has been more closely in line, which may suggest a shift in market leadership...

August 8, 2019

With 10-year Treasury yields at under 2%, long-term investment grade bond premiums at about 26 basis points, equity valuations and margins on the high side and dividend yields on the low end, the factors that drive long-term returns in stocks and bonds are at levels associated with forward returns of around 3.9%.

July 30, 2019

In at least the last four decades, the Fed has never started a rate cutting cycle with market and economic conditions — as proxied by the U.S. unemployment rate, stock prices, high yield bond spreads, Treasury yields and the real Fed Funds Rate — as accommodative as they are today...

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